Hurricane rundown: This season, last season and the future

BY GENNA NORDLING

As Hurricane Florence nears the east coast and President Donald Trump makes comments on the death toll of last season’s hurricanes, Americans are bewildered by the amount hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

Currently, there are four named storms in the Atlantic, including Hurricane Florence. There are another two in the Pacific (Tropical Storm Olivia and Tropical Depression Paul) and one typhoon, Super Typhoon Mangkhut, that is a threat to the Philippines. The number of storms that are developing is a rising topic of conversation on social media. Many are in awe at the number of tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes active at the same time.

ABC 13 meteorologist of 35 years, Tim Heller, was appalled by the current activity levels of the tropics.

In my 35 years forecasting the weather on TV, I have NEVER seen so much activity in the tropics all at the same time. #Florence #Helene #Isaac #Olivia #Paul pic.twitter.com/gHMcoHbU2s

— Tim Heller ABC13 (@HellerWeather) September 11, 2018

Though the activity of the tropics is high, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted the opposite in their 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. The NOAA predicted a below-normal or near-normal season instead of the above-normal prediction they made in May.

Their controdictions can be explained by sea surface temperatures have been lower than expected. This means there is a higher chance of El Niño (an irregular and complex change of wind flow in the Pacific) occurring. Furthermore, the atmospheric conditions that were predicted are not conducive to create an abnormal amount of hurricanes.

The 2018 Atlantic Hurricane is predicted to have nine to 13 named storms, four to seven hurricanes and zero to two major hurricanes. So far, the season has produced four named storms, two of which are hurricanes.

A major hurricane is a hurricane that reaches category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind scale. Technically, Florence would be a major hurricane because it reached category 4, but on Thursday, September 13 it was reduced to a category 2.

One of the major hurricanes from the 2017 Hurricane Season has recently been in the news again. On September 13, President Trump sent out two tweets claiming 3,000 people did not die in Puerto Rico after being hit by Hurricane Maria and Democrats inflated the death toll to make him look bad.

3000 people did not die in the two hurricanes that hit Puerto Rico. When I left the Island, AFTER the storm had hit, they had anywhere from 6 to 18 deaths. As time went by it did not go up by much. Then, a long time later, they started to report really large numbers, like 3000…

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 13, 2018

…..This was done by the Democrats in order to make me look as bad as possible when I was successfully raising Billions of Dollars to help rebuild Puerto Rico. If a person died for any reason, like old age, just add them onto the list. Bad politics. I love Puerto Rico!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 13, 2018

Both Republicans and Democrats disagree with this statement. Florida Governor and U.S. Senate candidate Rick Scott tweeted that he disagrees with the president and agrees with the study from George Washington University, which estimates the death toll at 2,975 people. There are other studies that also estimate a death toll in the thousands, but Trump continues to defend his initial thoughts on the matter.

With more than two months left of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season, there is time for the atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic to be changed and result in the opposite of what the NOAA predicted. Rising global temperatures due to climate change favor the increase of stronger, more destructive hurricanes.

If the temperatures of the ocean rise from oddly low to higher than average, it is more than likely that the number of major hurricanes will exceed the prediction of zero to two.

For those that are interested in the impact of climate change on the number of hurricanes, read this article written about the predictions made for the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Atlantic atmospheric conditions cause an increase of hurricanes this season

Photo curtesy of USA Today